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total number of train
incidents rose year-over-
year, climbing from nine in 2011 to
143 in 2014, also contributed to public
outcry, regulatory action, and some serious
self-examination on the part of the railroad
industry. When early in 2014 the Pipeline and
Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
(PHMSA) issued a rare safety alert, saying,
“recent derailments and resulting fires indicate
that the type of crude oil being transported
from the Bakken region may be more flammable
than traditional heavy crude oil,” it heightened
anxiety about oil train incidents even more.
As a result, impartial analysts, Keystone XL
supporters, and rail critics of all stripes rushed
with actuarial zeal to try to gauge the inherent
relative safety of oil trains compared to pipelines.
And even though statistics support the long-
standing notion that pipelines are, indeed, safer,
getting a clear and reliable picture rests on a
variety of factors.
As Kenneth P. Green, co-author of the Fraser
Institute report, “Safety in the Transportation of
Oil and Gas: Pipelines or Rail?” suggests, what
you measure matters.
RELATIONSHIPS REVEAL
THE TRUE ADVANTAGES
Green is senior director of the Center for
Natural Resource Studies at the Fraser Institute,
an independent, non-partisan Canadian public
policy think tank. Armed with data compiled
by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada
(TSB) and Transport Canada, he found that
during the decade between 2003 and 2013, the
rate of occurrences (defined as either incidents or
accidents) per million barrels of oil transported
was more than 4.5 times higher for rail than for
pipelines.
However, Green says, a simple overview of
occurrences doesn’t really convey the whole
story. Instead, it’s necessary to take a more
nuanced approach.
For example, unless the amount of product
transported is taken into account, rail actually
appears to be the safer method for moving oil
and natural gas products. As Green’s report
notes, the average number of occurrences per
year for rail, based on data from 2003 to 2013,
was 27, compared to 111 for pipelines.
It’s only when occurrences are correlated
with the volume of product moved – and in
2013, Canadian pipelines transported almost 15
times more product than rail did – that the true
relative safety advantage of pipelines is revealed,
Green says.
“Federally regulated pipelines in Canada
currently move just under 15 times more
hydrocarbons than do the railroads. But with
increased production and continued opposition
to new pipeline infrastructure, more and more oil
(was) pushed to rail – a mode of transport which
is more likely to experience a spill,” he explains.
STUDIES GIVE PIPELINES THE EDGE
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, senior fellow at the
Manhattan Institute for Policy Research in New
York City and director of its
Economics21.orgwebsite, also made an unbiased examination
into recent rail and pipeline safety statistics.
While her assessment mirrors Green’s, she’s far
more direct in her conclusion. As the title of her
widely quoted white paper says, “Pipelines are
Safest for the Transportation of Oil and Gas.”
“A review of safety and accident statistics
provided by the U.S. Department of
Transportation for the extensive network of
existing U.S. pipelines – including many linked
to Canada – clearly shows that, in addition to
enjoying a substantial cost advantage, pipelines
result in fewer spillage incidents and personal
injuries than road and rail,” Furchtgott-Roth
“FEDERALLY REGULATED PIPELINES IN
CANADA CURRENTLY MOVE JUST UNDER
15 TIMES MORE HYDROCARBONS
THAN DO THE RAILROADS.”
C O V E R S T O R Y
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